Will She Stay or Will She Go?

As some of you may have noticed, last Friday at around 9PM, a few hours after the McCain camp announced the Sarah Palin pick, I twittered this:

          My prediction: Palin ends up withdrawing under scrutiny and backlash, Thomas Eagleton-style, within three weeks.

I've made some gut reaction political predictions before on this blog, some of which turned out to be prescient, others a little less so. I'm feeling pretty good about my Palin wager right now. (Fred Wilson turned it into a DubHub bet, which lagged through the weekend at around a 10% likelihood, but it has trended upwards over the past day.) On Friday, none of the pregnancy stories had yet appeared in the national media or blogosphere—I'd certainly heard nothing about it—but the speed with which the Troopergate story surfaced, and the fact that it was a live investigation, made me think that Palin was going to be an albatross for McCain from day one, and that sooner or later, he was going to realize admitting a mistake was preferable to a steady drip of Palin controversy dominating the news...

Still, it's hard to know how this will play out exactly. I think one key element will be her oratory skills; I can imagine a scenario where she gives a compelling, emotionally honest "hockey mom" speech that confronts the pregnancy issue head-on, and the tide turns dramatically in her favor, particularly among the evangelicals. On the other hand, the fact that she is going to have two infants in her household, one with major developmental needs, gives her and McCain an honorable, blame-the-media out: "Sarah realized the relentless media scrutiny was not ultimately the best thing for her growing family, and so she is withdrawing today her candidacy..."

Comments

[Ronald Hayden]

> but the speed with which the Troopergate story surfaced

Not sure what you are implying here -- that it was a surprise to anyone involved? This was a well-known situation, certainly known and vetted by the McCain people, and heck, without knowing almost anything about Sarah Palin I was aware that there was an ongoing investigation of this nature. Months ago people were saying "Maybe Palin could be VP but the investigation means that won't happen."

Also, I suggest looking into the details. It involves a guy who tasered his own son, threatened to shoot Palin's father, and other unsavory things.

Whether her removing an elected official was related to this or not, if she hadn't worked to get this guy out of the police force, what do you think the scandal would be today?

Mostly, though, I want to push against the idea that Troopergate "surfaced" in some fashion that implies it was a hidden situation in any manner.

In a matter of hours, a *lot* of misinformation has been pushed out about Palin -- including the lie that her last child was really her daughter's child, etc -- I hope you won't contribute to this situation.

[Rikard Linde]

Even though I find the media frenzy around Palin fascinating I think we're making a mistake discussing these things without highlighting what a McCain/Palin presidency would mean, what world they want to create. When we discuss the election we should focus on how Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin differ when it comes to values and what kind of world we want to live in.

Focus should be on worldviews. The progressive worldview that says we are in this together and we are stronger when we care for each other and cooperate. The conservative worldview that emphasizes self-interest and doing things by yourself and that you are on your own (and no one is more symbolic of this than Palin).

The problem is that McCain/Palin want to increase self-interest.
The solution, which Obama has said over and over again, is to increase empathy and care for each other. The solution is working together to rebuild the country.

http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/97193

Rikard

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[Karl R.]

"Palin ends up withdrawing under scrutiny and backlash, Thomas Eagleton-style, within three weeks."

I can only hope sooner than that ..

Clearly the GOP wanted to hide this from the party .. Starting off a campaign with ommissions like this can only make people wonder what else are they withholding from Americans?

What's with all the war-talk on the first night. Nothing about economy, food prices, foreclosures, gas prices, business decline ....

If you are the kind of republican that gets an erection on war stories, then you must have cum in your pants on the first night of the GOP convention --

We republicans have to get over this bullshit and start talking about the challenges of the country ..

This isn't the GOP I want any more .. _ think I'll turn to OBama .. I don't need the horse crap.

Republicans are turning into retards.

[Rebecca]

This has nothing to do with the blog entry, but I didn't see where else to put it. I just listened to Radio Lab's show on "Emergence"... and you are the #1 Steven on google again!! :)

[Ronald Hayden]

> My prediction: Palin ends up withdrawing under scrutiny and backlash, Thomas Eagleton-style, within three weeks

> I'm feeling pretty good about my Palin wager right now.

How about now?

I'm a big fan of your books and your thoughtful approach to things, and in particular your debunking, on this very blog, common myths in politics like "the schools are all going to hell".

So in this case it's pretty disappointing to see you jump in on a media meme, with clearly no research or knowledge of what you were talking about, and contribute to the misplaced frenzy.

> I can imagine a scenario where she gives a compelling, emotionally honest "hockey mom" speech that confronts the pregnancy issue head-on, and the tide turns dramatically in her favor, particularly among the evangelicals.

Well, got that one right!

[Viagra]

Sarah is not going anywhere!

She addressed the media in her speech at the GOP convention and let me tell you I wish that she was the presidential candidate.

Here's to Sarah....Our favorite pitbull hockey mom

[Eric]

Guess you were way off on this one. Let's just hope you are more right about Obama for all of our sakes.

[Flüge]

To be honest, Palin should get lost from the political area. She is just not qualified enough to run an office, what she has shown in Alaska. As long as she isn't able to manage things and problems in this single state, she shouldn't try it nationwide either. That's my non-biased opinion. Note, I am neither a democratic nor republican henchman.

[thirteen28]

Found this blog from a Google search, my curiosity piqued from picking up a copy of your book entitled "Everything Bad Is Good For You," which I already know is going to be a very enjoyable read.

As a conservative though, I don't agree your opinion on Palin, not by a long shot. That being said, I won't try to change the opinion of you or anyone else regrading Palin, and in fact in light of how your prediction played out, I have to say I'm pleased as punch you hold such an opinion.

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
- Sun Tzu

Carry on.

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