My Political Forecast

I've been meaning to write something about the Obama candidacy for a while now, and just haven't found the time, so now that it's the day of the Iowa caucus I thought I'd just jot down a quick thought and prediction that I've been pretty convinced of for the past month. And that prediction is that Obama is going to win it all -- Iowa, the nomination, the Presidency. And I think it ultimately comes down to the fact that he is a rare combination in American politics, in that he is both the "emotional" choice and the "electable" choice. The whole concept of an Obama presidency is just intrinsically inspiring, particularly after the last two terms. And yet at the same time, all the polls suggest that he's the candidate who can beat pretty much any Republican in the field -- unlike Hillary. All the independents in my extended family would vote for him in a heartbeat, and they'd never vote for Hillary. Everything I've read suggests that this pattern is going to repeat itself all across the country.

Traditionally, we've always had to make a tradeoff between the emotional and the electable choices -- "Sure this Howard Dean campaign is exciting, but the guy's never going to win a national election, so let's go with the politically experienced war hero." But with Obama the two sets overlap: you want the guy to win, and he also has the best chance of winning.

So there it is -- we'll see where things stand tomorrow. (My Iowa prediction last year turned out to be dead right, for what it's worth.) The other thing I've been thinking is that it's entirely possible that the Clinton campaign is going to implode quickly -- it's entirely possible that she could start the primary season with back-to-back third place finishes which would be a stunning early defeat. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we had an Edwards/Obama race by Feb 6.

Comments

[earl]

I mostly agree with your political analysis and would be happy to see the Obama/Edwards situation materialize.

There's a couple of things that may work against Obama. 1) A perceived lack of experience, although this could be a bonus if people respond to his play that this makes him an element for positive change of the status quo, and 2) the perception that Clinton and Obama seem to think they have an entitlement to the presidency.

One plus for Obama is that he's not Hillary. A percentage of votes will be against her as much as for him.

[LJB]

I feel like the Republican candidate will unfortunately emphasize Obama's Islamic faith in an attempt to recapture the Christian voter who would otherwise side with the Democratic party. Should a voter even consider religion?

[Scott]

Obama transcends race and is sorta like the Tiger Woods of the 2008 presidential field...;-)

[Jemaleddin]

The problem with this theory is that polls and election results consistently tell us that minority candidates receive 10% more support in polls than they do at the ballot box. It's terrible to say it, but America is probably 10% too racist to elect Obama.

And LJB: He's a Christian - who are you kidding?

[ljb]

sorry, I hadn't paid attention to that and was just going by the name. weird

[Alex Drelles]

I saw Obama in a campaign rally early on in Tampa. What struck me most, aside from the rock star appeal, was the diversity of the crowd. It was amazing how many different types of people came to the rally. There we stood with our Audacity of Hope books clutched in our hands, like zealots at a church service waiting for the man to preach. I'll never forget it.

[Stefania/CityMama]

Totally disagree. I like Obama but he is not electable--not against any Republican candidate. The only person who is is Edwards. I don't want four more years of Republican cronyism and corruption--and that's why I can't back Obama. I'm backing the only person that can win against a Republican.

[chris]

I'm not a partisan, nor am I a conservative or liberal. It will be Obama and Huckabee and Huckabee will win. I'd wager money on it.

[Christopher]

Isn't the concept of 'electable' really quite defeatist? It seems circular to vote for someone who can win just because they can win. And when he wins, then what? Frankly, despite what he claims, I just don't see a big enough difference between Obama and/or the democratic candidates. What this country needs is a healthy dose of economic populism, and the Edwards-brand, then only brand available, is still sadly corporate.

[dianna]

Well, you were right - Obama has won IOWA hands down, so now maybe people will begin to believe that it is not only possible to elect him, but it is absolutely necessary! Nearly every poll puts him ahead of any and all Republican candidates in a general election - unlike Hillary. I am just afraid that the media and corporate America will unleash a huge backlash against him now. However, it looks like young people are getting involved, so there is hope that they will vote for the candidate who inspires hope for a better world. Obama '08 is the only chance we have!

[Richard]

I'm with you on Obama and those who themselves aren't racist but think he's unelectable because of his race underestimate this point in time. What the Bush years have done is open many people up to a credible candidate who at least voices a change in direction. Black man. White woman. Doesn't matter. We want credibility, honesty, inspiration.

Even though I support Kucinich's old style liberal views and would love to see Bush/Cheney impeached and tired as war criminals, Obama goes beyond that or at least seems to be pointing in that direction.

If Hillary loses in New Hampshire I hope she doesn't damage the entire democratic field (including herself) as she flails in anger and desperation.

The discussion at our house is who would best serve Obama as a running mate. It's a tough call and might tip him one way or another in the general election should he be nominated.