Iowa, The Morning After

So far my predictions are looking pretty good. (I'd be enjoying it all even more if I didn't have a mean caucus-night hangover.) I imagine I'm not alone in getting a little choked up more than a few times during Obama's speech -- particularly during these passages:

I'll be a president who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrepreneurs to free this nation from the tyranny of oil once and for all. And I'll be a president who ends this war in Iraq and finally brings our troops home... who restores our moral standing, who understands that 9/11 is not a way to scare up votes but a challenge that should unite America and the world against the common threats of the 21st century. Common threats of terrorism and nuclear weapons, climate change and poverty, genocide and disease.

Tonight, we are one step closer to that vision of America because of what you did here in Iowa.

... I know how hard it is. It comes with little sleep, little pay and a lot of sacrifice. There are days of disappointment. But sometimes, just sometimes, there are nights like this; a night that, years from now, when we've made the changes we believe in, when more families can afford to see a doctor, when our children -- when Malia and Sasha and your children inherit a planet that's a little cleaner and safer, when the world sees America differently, and America sees itself as a nation less divided and more united, you'll be able to look back with pride and say that this was the moment when it all began.

I love that temporal shift of projecting forward to our future recollection of the present -- "a night that, years from now, when we've made the changes we believe in..." It reminds me a little of the device Whitman uses in "Crossing Brooklyn Ferry" when he's directly addressing future city dwellers making the same passage across the East River:

I am with you, you men and women of a generation, or ever so many generations hence;
I project myself—also I return—I am with you, and know how it is.
Just as you feel when you look on the river and sky, so I felt;
Just as any of you is one of a living crowd, I was one of a crowd;
Just as you are refresh’d by the gladness of the river and the bright flow, I was refresh’d;	25
Just as you stand and lean on the rail, yet hurry with the swift current, I stood, yet was hurried;
Just as you look on the numberless masts of ships, and the thick-stem’d pipes of steamboats, I look’d. Those lines always choke me up as well -- but Whitman always does that to me. But political speeches almost never do. But maybe that, too, is about to change.

Comments

[dianna]

You are not the only one who experienced the emotional high of feeling like s/he was witnessing history. (Wonderful Whitman quote, I might add). Here in Italy, I have just spent the afternoon walking around my city with people, who know I am American, walking up to me wearing the broadest smiles saying, "So it is true! America has changed! Congratulations! (and often) "I wish that kind of thing could happen here!" Talk about choking up - it has been SUCH a long time since anyone had anything nice to say about us...let it be true, in New Hampshire too...

[john]

Sorry, man, but this:

"I'll be a president who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrepreneurs to free this nation from the tyranny of oil once and for all."

is his ethanol-based energy "strategy," which is lame, expensive, and wasteful.

[John Lavitt]

My fiance Theodora is from Bulgaria, and has been in the United States for seven years. Already a dual citizen, this is her first experience of a Presidential election where she can actually vote. Unlike me, she has been watching the debates with vigor, somewhat freaked-out by both Hillary and John Edwards. She believes Hillary never gives you a straight answer on anything, and Edwards simply creeps her out. She was so excited by Obama's win last night that she literally could not sleep. After spending her entire time in this country under Bush and growing more and more dejected, she finally has hope for the future.

[Farid]

The United States doesn't have the kind of political systems in which strategic changes can be brought upon. The democrats and republicans are not very different strategically. This dog and pony show; the American idol of the politics, if you will.

The founding father made sure that this system will go on forever while the ignorant populace actually FEEL that they have a choice in the matter.

Search "Chomsky and US political system" on youtube.

[Melissa Winter Weiss]

I'm not sure I dare to dream yet.

[techinvestor]

Ted Sorensen, JFK's speech writer, compares the Obama campaign with JFK's and gives a strong endorsement for an Obama presidency...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReDCmk2c2g8

[techinvestor]

As a guest on Charlie Rose, senior foreign policy advisor Samantha Power discusses Barack Obama's campaign in Iowa and why 2008 is the year to elect him. Aired October 16, 2007...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EljQbIE7Emw&feature=related

[Chris Bloch]

So how come two of these comments have the exact same content, but are posted from different users, hours and hours apart?

[techinvestor]

Interesting predictions from Byron Wien who was Morgan Stanley's highly regarded Chief Strategist until 2005...he now helps run a large Hedge Fund...

Pequot's Byron Wien: Ten Surprises for 2008

http://seekingalpha.com/article/59143-pequot-s-byron-wien-ten-surprises-for-2008

1. In spite of Federal Reserve easing, and other policy measures, the United States economy suffers its first recession since 2001 as housing starts stay soft and banks are reluctant to lend to anyone where a whiff of risk is apparent. Federal funds drop below 3%. The unemployment rate moves definitively above 5% and consumer spending is lackluster.

2. Standard and Poor’s 500 earnings decline year-over-year and the index drops another 10%. Energy and materials stocks hold up relatively well in what is viewed as a correction rather than a bear market. Market conditions start to improve during the summer.

3. The dollar strengthens in the first half reaching US$1.35 against the euro and weakens in the second exceeding US$1.50. The European Central Bank begins an accommodative monetary policy. Foreign investors flock in to buy cheap assets in the U.S. early in the year, but the dollar declines later as several countries holding large reserves diversify into other assets.

4. Inflation rises above 5% on the Consumer Price Index as higher commodity prices and oil finally begin to have an impact in spite of modest wage increases. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises to 5%. Stagflation becomes a frequent presidential campaign and Op-Ed discussion topic.

5. The price of oil goes down early in the year and up later, sinking to US$80 a barrel in the first half as western economies slow and inventories are drawn down, and rising to US$115 in the second. Established wells continue to decline in production while China, India and the Middle East increase their consumption.

6. Agricultural commodities remain strong. Corn rises to US$6 a bushel and cotton to US$0.85 a pound. Gold reaches US$1 000 an ounce as disillusionment with paper currencies spreads across Asia.

7. The recession in the United States slows the Chinese economy modestly, but its stock market declines sharply. Investors recognize that paying biotechnology stock multiples for highly cyclical companies doesn’t make sense. The Chinese revalue the renminbi by another 10% to control inflation and as a gesture to foreign governments participating in the Olympic Games, who complain that Chinese terms of trade are unfair. Several long distance runners refuse to compete in certain Olympic events because of continuing air pollution problems.

8. The new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, under the tutelage of Vladimir Putin, becomes more assertive in world affairs. He insists that Russian oil and gas be paid for in rubles and demands a Russian seat at major world conferences. Russia and Brazil stock markets lead the BRICs. The Gulf Cooperation Council markets begin to attract interest among emerging market investors.

9. Infrastructure improvement becomes an important election theme for both parties, and construction and engineering stocks rally in anticipation of huge programs beginning after the new President’s inauguration. Water becomes a critical problem world-wide and desalination stocks soar.

10. Barack Obama becomes the 44th President in a landslide victory over Mitt Romney. With conditions in Iraq improving, the weak economy becomes the determining issue in voters’ minds. They want to make sure that gridlock ends and Congress gets something done for a change. The Democrats end up with 60 Senate seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.

[Alex Drelles]

That speech electrified my spirit, No 10. is on the horizon. Huzzah!