I love this: Lou Dobbs has a typical ranting op-ed on CNN.com denouncing the fatalistic attitude of today's politicians, and includes this graph:

Our public education system is failing nationwide. While SAT scores decline, teachers in every state fail competency exams, and our high school dropout rate shows no sign of real improvement. Both parties point to their bipartisan bandage, No Child Left Behind, rather than propose real and immediate solutions.

Sounds fair enough. The trouble is: SAT scores aren't declining. Math scores have never been higher -- they're 14 points above where they were 10 years ago. Verbal this past year is four points above where it was a decade ago. And yet, during that time period, there has been a 38% increase in the number of people taking the test -- a trend which has the effect of dragging down the average, since the new test takers tend to come from the bottom of the class. (Their equivalents in 1996 didn't bother taking the test because they didn't plan on going to college.) There's also a huge increase in minority test-takers, who tend -- again, on average -- to have lower scores than the rest of the population. So even with an expansion in test-takers, and a swelling minority population with many non-native English speakers, the overall average for both verbal and math has improved since 1996. It's one thing to be a fatalist about the state of the education system in the U.S. It's another thing to simply get the facts wrong.

Updated 6/1: A couple of you have written in to say that the problem with this logic is that the SAT tests have been re-normalized several times over the past decades so that 500 would be roughly the average score. This is true, but the last time it happened was 1994, so it's irrelevant to my point about trends over the past ten years. And secondly, the SAT folks and other education scholars are not idiots: they know the scores were adjusted, and so when they do long-term trend analyses, they adjust them back so that it's an apples-to-apples comparison. This chart shows you the adjusted history (along with the raw scores.) The picture is very clear: a steady decline from late sixties to about 1990, and then a steady increase since then. And for what it's worth, most, if not all, of that decline from 67-90 is attributable to the dramatic increase in SAT test-takers, not to some overal decline in educational standards.

Comments

[BD]

The SAT was dumbed down in 1994 (according to Wikipedia -- I remembered that it happened but didn't remember the year). I'm not quite convinced that they aren't still dumbing it down a little bit, though I'd have no hard evidence to back that up. I do recall that perfect scores used to be extraordinarily rare, and now you can have hundreds of 1600s in one applicant pool.

None of which backs up Dobbs, when you get right down to it.

[Anil Dash]

I think the real issue is this: Fuck Lou Dobbs. Fuck his xenophobic, intellectually dishonest, transparently and ham-handedly race-baiting adoption of an outsourcing boogie man that I'm not sure he even believes in.

But, you know, that's just my opinion.

[Jeremy hunsinger]

the only problem with the SAT arguments is the that the SAT has been renormed several times in the last 20 years. That means the average scores that look like they are 15 points higher might, in fact be 75 lower. it is not that it is an easier test, it is that what the score means maps onto a norm and is not absolute. as the gentleman above notes, it is easier to get a 1600 now, but that 1600 will still mean that you are in the top xx% of test-takers.

[Aaron Suggs]

"teachers in every state fail competency exams"

Exams would be worthless if nobody failed them. The fact that some teachers fail competency tests is not at all evidence of a failed educational system.

That's like saying that restaurants in every state fail health code inspections; therefore we need real and immediate solutions to the restaurant sanitation crisis.

[Ryan]

When saying there are a larger number of perfect scores now, as oppose to say twenty years ago, we must remember there are so many more classes and websites built just to teach how to take this one test.

Though I'm sure they had classes on it in the 80's, there is now greater access to this knowledge. The knowledge that only a few people once had is now out there for the vast majority of people.

Furthermore, to Steven's point, there are a lot more people taking the SAT's now, that quite honestly, don't want to. When I was going through the whole SAT ordeal (yr.2000-2001) I had friends with 1.8 GPA's being told to take the test. They would argue, what's the point? Teachers, counselors etc. would tell them to go ahead and take it anyways. Their argument was, that if they were to get something like a 1200 on this test and got their grades up their senior year colleges would consider them. And of course, none of them did. It actually too two of them to equal that.

So I don't see this as an indication of a dumbing down trend but rather an even greater emphasis on college, for a larger number of people. And thus greater emphasis on the SAT's.

[RSM]

This is my first time here and I wanted to tell you that I really enjoy your writing.

I'm off to go buy some of your books now...

[chris larry]

As someone in the education field I want to say thank you Steven. Not only for this post but for some of the sections in Everything Thats Bad. Its insane how these assumptions get dumped as facts by blow hard one trick ponies like Lou Dobbs. I know first hand the problems with public education in this country (NYC in particular) and if Dobbs spent a fraction of his energy on education issues rather than three piece suit rascism and slander of his immigration jihad maybe the critical issues of education could be debated rather than scapegoated.

I read the original column and, although I didnt have the SAT facts at my finger tips, I knew when I hit the section you highlighted he was wrong. In fact I thought to myself "Doesnt SBJ refute this claim in Everything..."

Chris Larry

[Jemaleddin]

Just to back up what Aaron said about teacher competency exams: "Exams would be worthless if nobody failed them."

I work for a big contracting company and one of the things we've prided ourselves on is how high our percentage of wins is on bids and proposals. We're pretty close to 100%: if we bid on a project, we're going to win it. Our CEO found this out and told everyone that he wants that changed: if we're winning all of our bids, then we aren't bidding on enough risky, complicated, high-tech contracts that are outside out comfort zone.

So if people are failing the tests, then the tests are working. The question is: what happens process-wise when a teacher fails.

[jp]

Anecdotally, I can tell you that the test has definitely and drastically been dumbed-down over the last 30 years. I took the test in 1987 and scored a 1480-- combined math and verbal. my brother is 13 years older than I am and took the test in 1975, scoring about 1200. I have a cousin who is a senior in high school and recently scored a 1440 on the math/verbal component (not including the essay). I had occasion to look at my brother's old SAT prep book and compare it to my cousin's current edition. Long story short... the two tests are not even in the same ballpark. It's as if the new version is designed for people who are 3 or 4 years younger (junior high). This is particularly noticeable in the math section which on the current test seldom rises above intermediate level Algebra and Geometry. The older tests made numerous forays into Differential Calculus, vector analysis, sophisticated Trigonometry, etc.

[jeff]

fuck lou dobbs xenophobic bastard who always twists facts. narrow minded, subjective animal biting everybody who can think and act reasonably.
i wonder why they keep this sicko in cnn, suppose for controversy he provides. never seen a person who argues to pass his sick opinions as if they have some scientific value, or can be applied to a real life situations. this guy is fool of hate, disdain against non Americans, who represent different races other than whites. i would suggest him to take some classes on cultural
subject, which will explain him that there
are some other cultures out there and they are humans too.

[LOU]

Lou Dobbs Becomes Lifetime Member Of Hispanic Journalists Association

An article in the Spanish-language newspaper El Diario La Prensa today notes that the National Association of Hispanic Journalists (NAHJ) has accepted CNN host Lou Dobbs as a national lifetime member. A lifetime membership costs $1,000; Dobbs donated $5,000. NAHJ president Rafael Olmeda tried to justify Dobbs’s membership:

“We cannot pretend that illegal immigration is not part of the story. Lou Dobbs, in my opinion, tells this story in an incomplete, not constructive, way. But he has the right to disagree with me,” reaffirmed Olmeda in writing after a 36-minute conversation on Friday afternoon. (trans.)

Dobbs’s reports are more than just “incomplete” and “not constructive.” They often contain inaccurate, biased, and misleading information.

Last night, CBS’s 60 Minutes caught Dobbs in one of these lies. Following “a report on illegals carrying diseases into the U.S.,” his show reported that there were 7,000 cases of leprosy in the United States in the last three years. CBS found out that there were actually 7,000 cases in the past 30 years, and “nobody knows how many of those cases involve illegal immigrants.” When host Lesley Stahl confronted him on this error, Dobbs simply replied, “If we reported it, it’s a fact.” Watch it:

Last year, the NAHJ put out a statement condemning the phrase “illegal immigrant,” noting it “can often be used pejoratively in common parlance and can pack a powerful emotional wallop for those on the receiving end.” Dobbs continues to use that term.

Digg It!

Transcript:

STAHL: Well, here’s what they say about you. That you distort the figures, that you exaggerate, and you aim to inflame just to get ratings.

DOBBS: Oh, really?

STAHL: Yes, really.

DOBBS: That’s fascinating, because what I can’t understand is why other journalists would not take on the issues of free trade, illegal immigration, outsourcing, all of these rather sexy topics… (CROSSTALK)

STAHL: I’ll tell — I’ll tell you why.

DOBBS: … which I’ve been covering for years.

STAHL: Reporters don’t take on issues, reporters report issues, and there’s a big difference there.

Do you think you’re a journalist?

DOBBS: Absolutely. I may be an advocacy journalist, but I’m a journalist.

STAHL (voice-over): One of the issues he tackles relentlessly is illegal immigration. And on that, his critics say, his advocacy can get in the way of the facts.

DOBBS: Tuberculosis, leprosy, malaria?

STAHL: Following a report on illegals carrying diseases into the U.S., one of the correspondents on his show, Christine Romans, told Dobbs that there have been 7,000 cases of leprosy in the U.S. in the past three years.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Leprosy. In this country.

DOBBS: Incredible.

STAHL: We checked that and found a report issued by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, saying 7,000 is the number of leprosy cases over the last 30 years, not the past three. And nobody knows how many of those cases involve illegal immigrants.

(on camera): Now we went to try and check that number — 7,000. We can’t.

DOBBS: Well, I can tell you this. If we reported it, it’s a fact.

STAHL: You can’t tell me that. You did report it.

DOBBS: Well no, I just did.

STAHL: How can you guarantee that to me?

DOBBS: Because I’m the managing editor. And that’s the way we do business. We don’t make up numbers, Lesley, do we?

STAHL: I’m sitting here saying to myself, this man runs a news show?

L. DOBBS: I do.

STAHL: And you can just tell me you don’t like the president. Whoo.

L. DOBBS: I, matter of fact, insist that the audience know where I come from.

STAHL: What about fair and balanced?

L. DOBBS: I’ve never, Lesley, found the truth to be fair and balanced. I’ve found it to be…

STAHL: But, that’s — but wait, what’s the definition of journalism? That — that’s in there. That has to be part of what a journalist is, is fair and balanced.

L. DOBBS: I truly believe there’s a non-partisan independent reality…

(CROSSTALK)

STAHL: But it’s your reality.

L. DOBBS: It is my reality.

STAHL: But it’s not the reality.

L. DOBBS: Well, how so?