A word about the President's proposed constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. I won't even get into how noxious I find the whole idea, since others have expressed their contempt with such eloquence already. Let's just focus on the politics of this amendment. You hear folks say that this was just a cheap, election-year move, but I'm not convinced that it's a move that helps Bush in the end. Here's my thinking -- there are basically four groups of voters out there who are at play in this political equation:
1. Hard right, presumably Christian conservatives who support Bush but were not planning on voting until this gay marriage amendment convinces them to get out to the polls
2. Independent swing voters who are on the fence about who to vote for, but feel so passionately about ending gay marriage that they decide to support Bush.
3. Independent swing voters who are on the fence about who to vote for, but are not particularly homophobic and are definitely creeped out by the idea of altering the Constitution to deny rights to a group of American citizens, and who thus decide to vote for Kerry (or whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be.)
4. Far-left voters who buy the old Nader line that both parties have sold out to corporate America (and who either voted for Nader or sat out the last election altogether) who are so enraged by the bigotry of this amendment that they decide to hold their noses and vote for a Democrat this year.
Now, for the President's calculus to make sense, there have to be more folks in categories 1 & 2 than in categories 3 & 4. I have no numbers to back this up, but I have a hard time believing that there are more voters in those first two categories: the hard right tends to be better about getting out to the polls and supporting the Republican candidate than the far left does with the Democratic candidate; and independents tend to be pretty tolerant on the whole, and they don't like the government messing around with private lives.
In fact, I wonder whether, with this single speech, Bush undid whatever effects Nader was going to have on this race: anyone on the left who was still contemplating a Nader protest vote must be having some serious second thoughts this week.