I think Dan Gillmor's right that the Keynote and Safari announcements from yesterday's Macworld make it clear that Apple is trying to assemble a suite of applications that will enable it to survive Microsoft finally deciding to kill the Mac version of Office. With their new presentation software and browser, Apple's now just a word processor and spreadsheet away from making a plausible case that OS X users don't need Microsoft anymore. (By the way, I dropped down the Soho Apple store this morning to check out Keynote, but it wasn't due in until later this afternoon -- I'll post a report after I've had a chance to test drive.)
Presumably, this life-without-MS strategy was generated alongside the Switch campaign: Apple must have assumed that they'd start eating into Windows' market share this year, triggering the wrath of Ballmer, and thus leaving them without Office, IE, and Entourage. But of course it hasn't quite played out like that -- if anything, Apple seems to be losing market share to Windows. (You could tell the news wasn't good on this front by the fact that Jobs didn't really have anything to say yesterday about the effectiveness of the Switch campaign.)
Now, Apple can continue to make great products and solid profits with a 3% market share, but it's not a growth story, as they say. It seems to me that the real opportunity for them lies outside the Mac platform. I was struck by the figures they cited about the iPod being the number one MP3 player in the states, with a 42 percent market share in Japan. When was the last time you heard Apple throwing numbers like that around? That's why I was hoping that there would be another Digital Lifestyle Device in the Macworld keynote.
With the new 802.11g wireless standard, they have an opportunity to make something more radical than the iPod, and just as fun to use. I'd like to see a small, cheap box, maybe the size of the iPod, with video and audio outs, 802.11g, and infrared for remote control. No hard drive, just enough RAM and CPU power to stream high-quality audio and video. You hook it up to to your stereo or TV, and serve music and video over the wi-fi connection from your Mac. The whole box should cost like $200, and you should be able to run 3-4 of them at the same time in your house. So you keep all your music on your Mac; you plug your cable into your Mac, and then you just serve up whatever entertainment you want to any TV or stereo in the house. They can make it Mac-only for the first six months, as they did with the iPod, and then release Windows software after the Mac faithful have had their fun. Why isn't this feasible? And who wouldn't want one of these? (Or three of them?)